View Full Version : Two Skier Triggered Slides
Bob T
03-22-2005, 08:08 AM
I'm new here so first things first: Hello! Have lurked for a while and very much appreciate this site.
I have a question directed to the veterans of Tucks who watched events unfold last weekend. My apologies if this was discussed somewhere else on this forum, but much to my surprise I couldn't find any mention of it.
Saturday: Skier escapes with his life after triggering a slide near the lip. See 3/21 USFS report for details.
http://www.tuckerman.org/photos/tucks/A%2003-19-2005%20Skier%20triggered%20avalanche%20in%20the%20 Lip-caught%20but%20uninjured.JPG
Sunday: Good visibility. Saturday's slide is plainly visible to everyone in the bowl. Two skiers practicing "safe" (according to same 3/21 USFS avy report) technique trigger slide in Chute.
http://www.tuckerman.org/photos/tucks/A%2003-20-2005%20Skier%20triggered%20avalanche%20in%20the%20 Chute.JPG
I just want to know what people think about this. I'm puzzled by two things. 1. Sunday's skiers who could see that they were obviously skiing a very similarly loaded slope as one that slid the day before. 2. The fact that the avy report commends Sunday's skiers as practicing safe technique because they survived. Is it just a forgone conclusion for the Snow Rangers that people are going to ski no matter what and therefore the best thing they can do is commend safe practices as opposed to recommend that people don't ski aspects of Tucks that are a few hundred meters from a section that has obviously slid the day before? Please understand that I am not trolling here. I'm am just curious.
Looking forward to skiing with you all around the Rockpile.
Bob T
NHski
03-22-2005, 09:20 AM
I just want to know what people think about this. I'm puzzled by two things. 1. Sunday's skiers who could see that they were obviously skiing a very similarly loaded slope as one that slid the day before. 2. The fact that the avy report commends Sunday's skiers as practicing safe technique because they survived. Is it just a forgone conclusion for the Snow Rangers that people are going to ski no matter what and therefore the best thing they can do is commend safe practices as opposed to recommend that people don't ski aspects of Tucks that are a few hundred meters from a section that has obviously slid the day before? Please understand that I am not trolling here. I'm am just curious.
Looking forward to skiing with you all around the Rockpile.
Bob T
Welcome. Skiing in avy terrain involves risks. You can wait for the certain run to be rated low or you can try to minimize your risks and go for it. I think the snow rangers are commending the skiers not for the outcome, but for the way they went about it. Putting one skier at a time in avy zone and having a escape route for that skier is what they are commending. Personally, i pretty much limited my ski routes to a rating of moderate or lower. In moderate, avy's are possible so you have to minimize your risk. Same goes for low cause low doesn't mean no.
...I just want to know what people think about this. I'm puzzled by two things. 1. Sunday's skiers who could see that they were obviously skiing a very similarly loaded slope as one that slid the day before. 2. The fact that the avy report commends Sunday's skiers as practicing safe technique because they survived. Is it just a forgone conclusion for the Snow Rangers that people are going to ski no matter what and therefore the best thing they can do is commend safe practices as opposed to recommend that people don't ski aspects of Tucks that are a few hundred meters from a section that has obviously slid the day before? Please understand that I am not trolling here. I'm am just curious.
Looking forward to skiing with you all around the Rockpile.
Bob TSlides are a part of skiing extreme terrain. Sloughs from the turns can often be dangerous too.
1. Day-to-day the conditions mature in different directions depending on many factors. What was safe one day won't be on the next and visa versa.
2. Forecasters have to err on the side of caution if they err at all. Frankly, I respect and appreciate that.
It appears that the crowns are moderate on both releases. Those locations have ripped really big slides in the past...crowns over 6' for example. We have had many sunny days, more than I expected out of this winter...I suspect that most slides this season will be small or moderate like these. WARNING: There is a possibility of a mega slide as well: once the surface corn develops and some of the usual undermining gets going there may be a slide down at the shear at the level of the first big storm in 05.
Last year there were two really huge slides...one in the spring.
If I was in the Ravine I would have been staying in Left, but the Chute would have been a powerful draw.
NHski
03-22-2005, 09:32 AM
2. Forecasters have to err on the side of caution if they err at all. Frankly, I respect and appreciate that.
You think they err on the side of caution? I think they tell it like it is. I don't think they rate something considerable, when their analyis says moderate.
Rider.Steve
03-22-2005, 09:38 AM
I'm not a lawyer but I would believe that if the Rangers (or their employer) had liability for their advice they would be conservative; if there was no such liability they would be more free to "call it as they see it".
I agree with RR - that Chute looks phat.
Steve
You think they err on the side of caution? I think they tell it like it is. I don't think they rate something considerable, when their analyis says moderate.I think their zone map may show a preponderance of moderate, but if one pit says considerable that's how they will go...good thing too.
I agree, they won't fudge the final call, but they will let one test overrule several others in the same slide area.
I'm not a lawyer but I would believe that if the Rangers (or their employer) had liability for their advice they would be conservative; if there was no such liability they would be more free to "call it as they see it".
I agree with RR - that Chute looks phat.
SteveThe FS policy is to be straight with the public and not worry about the liability*. Their concern is making the objective information public.
* Remember the warning sign argument after someone fell into a crevasse a few years back and the parents wanted to sue? The policy is pretty cool in my eyes...but I am sorry someone died.
NtrentT
03-22-2005, 10:40 AM
Im headed up this weekend, and hope to make some turns in the bowl.
I hope the avi report is favorible.
Anyone think there will be any chances of that?
Affix Snow
03-22-2005, 10:47 AM
Im headed up this weekend, and hope to make some turns in the bowl.
I hope the avi report is favorible.
Anyone think there will be any chances of that?
Prolly too far away to tell........just keep an eye out and check again when you get up there!
Bob T
03-22-2005, 11:17 AM
Thank you for the responses. Always interesting to ponder the balance of risk and reward.
djming
03-22-2005, 02:13 PM
Im headed up this weekend, and hope to make some turns in the bowl.
I hope the avi report is favorible.
Anyone think there will be any chances of that?
This just from today's report on tuckerman.org:
We're on our way toward a good corn cycle on slopes with a southern aspect but we'll just have to wait and see what the week brings for weather. The combination of temps, wind and cloud cover will determine if we enter the melt-freeze cycle that will yield an early crop of large-grained corn snow
One can hope. Amazing what a couple warmer, blue-bird type days will do.
Weather for this weekend seems it could be a bit unsettled, but for right now it appears conditions are settling down.
Ispoiler
03-22-2005, 08:28 PM
Having been up there this past weekend and was in right gully, I felt I rolled the dice. Just because a bunch of other people were up and down safely does not mean that I was going to do so as well. I think I minimized the risk to myself while up there but there was always the chance of a slide. I saw many people dropping left gully and coming out by the mouth of the chute and waiting for 4-5 other people to get down. I found this odd and a very unsafe practice. I think that alot of people were very unaware of their surroundings and it was just dumb luck that nobody was caught up in the slide on Saturday.
A major cause of concern for the rangers was a very low density snow fall, nobody knows exactly what it will do. The ravine hasn't seen this type of snow in 50 years and the rangers are being very cautious.
NtrentT
03-22-2005, 08:32 PM
Hummm
Well if the weather is decent I will most likely go, but if the avi danger is moderate or high, i will ski Hillman's and ski to the car.
and hope for another trip back this year.
Its hard with 3 jobs now and buying a new house.
WHICH you can see Sundown Ski Area off of the deck in the back.
Priorities baby
NHski
03-23-2005, 08:35 AM
Hummm
Well if the weather is decent I will most likely go, but if the avi danger is moderate or high, i will ski Hillman's and ski to the car.
and hope for another trip back this year.
Its hard with 3 jobs now and buying a new house.
WHICH you can see Sundown Ski Area off of the deck in the back.
Priorities baby
Hillmans slides too.
Affix Snow
03-23-2005, 09:08 AM
Hillmans slides too.
People have died on hillmans...dont take it as safe.
People have died on hillmans...dont take it as safe.
Hillmans slides involve huge chunks of rock and other debris... At least from the huge piles I've seen at the bottom...
Rider.Steve
03-23-2005, 09:29 AM
Hillmans slides involve huge chunks of rock and other debris... At least from the huge piles I've seen at the bottom...
Well that seems a lot safer fo sho...
Rocks,
paper,
scissors,
Chute!
vBulletin® v3.8.7, Copyright ©2000-2013, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.